Even with the current media cycle being dominated by president Trump’s impeachment threat, the 2020 democratic primaries have been trucking on. We’ve reviewed the news cycle, gone through the polls, and even sat down with Democrats Overseas (DO) president Camilla Duke to summarize what Americans in St Andrews need to know to stay on top of the elections.

Where do the candidates sit in the polls

The data collected immediately following the September 12thHouston debate has Joe Biden in the lead with Senator Elizabeth Warren on his heels. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight statistical analysis site argues the recent polls suggest the race is already narrowing to Biden and Warren in a top two, rather than the Biden-Warren-Sanders race many had argued in previous months. 

Taken from FiveThirtyEight

DO president Camilla Duke defends Warren’s lead over Sanders, arguing, “a lot of Bernie’s popularity came from his anti-establishment appeal…the good thing about this election is there are lots of different options to represent more progressive issues, and I think that might be why fewer people are supporting Bernie. Elizabeth Warren has done a really good job of appealing to that young base because she communicates her policies in such an accessible way where people can get behind the passion and the ideals behind them but also see a plan in how that’s going to be carried out.” The New York Times has also accused both Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang of drawing from Sander’s base, suggesting the increase in progressive options to be detrimental to his core idealogy. 

Many of the DO members have been leaning toward this progressive idealogy, according to Camilla. 

FiveThirtyEight also argued for a removal of Kamala Harris from the top tier of candidates, following her poor performance and dropping ratings by -2.2 in national polls and -8.2 in Iowa (Iowa caucus being the first major contest in the presidential election) in the wake of the Houston debate. Amy Kobuchar and Beto O’Rourke, however, have been gaining in the polls since the debate. Klobuchar is best known for her self-pronounced moderate stance, one which may not be as successful in the youth vote. “Quite frankly I don’t think Amy Klobuchar has a lot of appeal with the younger voting base,” Camilla says. “I mean literally at the beginning of each debate she says things like ‘I may not be the loudest person on stage and I may not have the best ideas and I may not have polling’ and I kind of always end up thinking ‘what…what do you have to offer?’” O’Rourke, on the other hand, is most famous for having run against Ted Cruz in the Senate. This may not be enough to support him on the national stage, however. “I like many people are disappointed Beto isn’t running for senate again because I think his strength is in Texas and is also in running against a hated opponent… But in a crowded primary like this he unfortunately doesn’t really stand out.” O’Rourke’s best contribution to the race, however, may lie not with his own personal success but with the policies he’s forcing on stage. “what I hope he will achieve in his run for president is not to get the nomination but to push the greater scope of candidates to adopt more progressive gun control reform as part of their platform, like a mandatory buy-back program and other measures that would really help the gun violence crisis in our country.” This is, of course, following O’Rourke’s heavy anti-gun stance in the wake of the recent El Paso mass shooting.

What do voters care about?

According to static guru Nate Silver, the leading issues according to voters for this election have been Beating Donald TrumpHealth Care, and Economy (with the bottom being CrimeMilitary, and Sexism). Joe Biden currently leads in Beating Donald Trump, otherwise called “electability”, as the candidate the most voters believe could likely be successful in the general election. When asked about this potential, however, Camilla seemed skeptical. “I think there’s a weird sort of selective memory people are having; Joe Biden has run for president several times since being in the senate. His decades long political career has been marked by several runs for the presidency, all of which have failed. So I’m still a little confused as to why people think he’s the most electable candidate when he hasn’t been electable previously.” She also had this to say on the question of Biden’s run, “He’s out of touch with the needs of our generation…while he had been on the side of good things, a huge red flag for me is the 1994 crime bill which some would point to as the main contributor to today’s mass incarceration crisis…A lot of people have pointed to his record on bussing, and school integration, and I think that is also troubling. I really struggle to see reasons to vote for Joe Biden that aren’t about how the best way to beat a terrible white man is with a boring white man.” 

Taken from FiveThirtyEight

Though electability, health care, and the economy may poll very highly amongst national voters, they may not be the issues the youth are most focused on. Sitting just beneath these three are climate change and gun control, both of which may better reflect DO members. Camilla commented on her own peers, saying “A lot of people are deeply deeply concerned about climate change in a way older generations haven’t been because I think we know how going to affect our lives and our children’s lives. Our action or inaction now and in the next couple of years is going to radically affect how the rest of our lives play out and what conditions we are going to be living in. So I think for that, for most people I’ve talked to that’s a very pressing issue as well as gun control, because we’re sort of the generation that grew up being afraid of mass shootings in schools and having to go through trainings for how to protect yourself if a shooter comes in your school. And that’s totally mind blowing, how we’re the only generation saying this can’t be how kids grow up.” This critique, however, doesn’t mean the highest polling issues are lost on the members. “With things like health care and the economy, it matters to students why they can’t afford their prescriptions and why their student debt is through the roof and are they going to be able to get a job when they graduate from college.” She also defended the desire to beat Trump, but seemed disillusioned with this issue being separate from any singular platform, showing preference for a candidate’s overall platform rather than just “some boring white guy who has a non-radical message”. 

The desire for increasingly radical and progressive candidates does not only seem to represent the youth. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polls, more democrats are currently in favor of some form of socialism than capitalism.

Taken from FiveThirtyEight

Who’s captured the youth vote?

Though Bernie has traditionally grabbed young voters, Warren and Yang have made significant wave with millennials and Gen X. However, another candidate who’s been sometimes lost in the weeds has a strong base in colleges across the country. “Mayor Pete [Buttigieg] is the first openly gay candidate which is extremely exciting, and a lot of people are attracted to that. He’s also the youngest candidate on stage and I think that is exciting for people because it means he maybe shares our sense of urgency about climate change, just to cite one example,” Camilla tells us, listing off the reasons she and others have been supporting the progressive candidates. “I guess candidates that are shaking things up in one way or another are the what I’m seeing people drawn to.”

(Left to right) Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Mr. Andrew Yang, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren

How to get more involved while in St Andrews

Camilla Duke, “It’s easy to sort of lose touch with American politics, but obviously I’m biased with the Democrats Overseas Society—we do a lot of events to keep people keyed in to what’s happening back home in America, we do non-partisan voter registration for students of any or no party affiliation for local elections, primary elections, state elections, general elections, all of that good stuff. We also hold events, we’ve been doing debate watch parties where the day after the debate we’ll watch the highlights and discuss the key points and what we thought of all of the candidates’ performances. And we also do socials and create spaces for people to meet fellow likeminded, or perhaps differently minded, American students, and to just talk about the issues that matter to us. And I think just keeping people keyed in to what’s going on back in the states makes people want to be engaged in what’s happening. And whether that’s voting or going a step further and doing a phone bank or a text bank (we host those throughout each election season—just last year for example, for the 2018 midterms, we made over 2,000 phone calls for candidates in the states and over 10,000 texts for candidates back in the states, and I don’t know what our numbers will look like this year because obviously 2018 was huge and I won’t be here in the fall of 2020). There are ways to get involved from the most basic level of socializing with other people who care about politics to getting involved in our society by attending events or even running for a position.”

The EGM for Dems Overseas is October 3rd at 6:00pm in BrewCo South Street.

All Articles Referenced:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-issues-should-the-2020-democratic-candidates-be-talking-about/?cid=taboola_rcc_r
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-won-the-debate-among-voters-who-prioritize-electability-health-care-climate-change/?cid=taboola_rcc_r
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-a-better-case-for-a-top-2-than-a-top-3/

Full Interview Transcript with Camilla Duke:

  • With Biden in front, Warren is the next best polling candidate. Bernie has always gone for college-aged voters. Have you noticed a downhill trend among the young Dems for Bernie, and why might Warren be gaining on this base?

In the last election, a lot of Bernie’s popularity came from his anti-establishment appeal, which tends to be popular with young people sort of regardless of which generation or political area we’re living in, and he was in 2016 the only candidate that represented that in the presidential race. I think that now there are more options. If you want real big structural progressive change he’s not the only person to look to and a lot of his ideas are increasingly potent in the democratic party. People, especially young people, are really getting behind and fighting for even further progressive ground on the issues that Bernie has been talking about for the past several years and even decades in some cases. 21 candidates isn’t great but the good thing about this election is there are lots of different options to represent more progressive issues, and I think that might be why fewer people are supporting Bernie. Also, he’s older now, and while that’s not necessarily a be all and end all in a candidate, I think people are looking elsewhere for the representation of those progressive ideals. Elizabeth Warren has done a really good job of appealing to that young base because she communicates her policies in such an accessible way where people can get behind the passion and the ideals behind them but also see a plan in how that’s going to be carried out.

  • The top issues polls suggest democrats care most about are (1) Electability, (2) Health Care, and (3) The Economy. Do these reflect the interests of the students you’ve spoken to?

I would say yes and no. For the first issue of electability that is apparently polling number one amongst voters, most people I’ve talked to my age obviously really care about beating Donald Trump, obviously that’s a huge priority for everyone, but when we talk about how we’re going to beat Donald Trump, most people my age aren’t concerned with (that I’ve spoken to, and to be fair where I come from is a bit of a progressive bubble) in the student population care about the issues and how the next president is going to tackle those issues and how they affect their everyday lives. So with things like health care and the economy, it matters to students why they can’t afford their prescriptions and why their student debt is through the roof and are they going to be able to get a job when they graduate from college. So health care and the economy are definitely pressing for people but I also think it doesn’t really reflect how in our age group a lot of people are deeply deeply concerned about climate change in a way older generations haven’t been because I think we know how going to affect our lives and our children’s lives. Our action or inaction now and in the next couple of years is going to radically affect how the rest of our lives play out and what conditions we are going to be living in. So I think for that, for most people I’ve talked to that’s a very pressing issue as well as gun control, because we’re sort of the generation that grew up being afraid of mass shootings in schools and having to go through trainings for how to protect yourself if a shooter comes in your school. And that’s totally mind blowing, how we’re the only generation saying this can’t be how kids grow up. But as for the electability issue I find that what people mean when they say electability varies a lot based on who they are, what their circumstances are, what their background is. And while people may say it’s just the best person to beat Donald Trump, it sometimes means the most palatable candidate which basically just means some boring white guy who has a non-radical message that is going to appeal to the most people in the country. I don’t really think that’s the right way to go. Like I said, I care deeply about beating Donald Trump because it’s going to impact people’s lives if he stays president. If when we say the most electable candidate should win we mean the most boring palatable white man, that’s not something that matters at all to people my age and we’d rather see someone who represents the ideas we think are most important and is going to tackle them in a real and effective way.

  • Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke had a solid gain after the last debate—do their interests line up with the society’s general leaning, and are they candidates students should keep on their radar?

Quite frankly I don’t think Amy Klobuchar has a lot of appeal with the younger voting base. I personally don’t find her terribly enticing, just because she has explicitly framed herself as a moderate, middle ground, middle of the road candidate, and I think she has done a good job representing Minnesota in the senate but I don’t think that’s what we need right now in the presidency. I think we need someone who’s not afraid to take on big challenges in a bold way and she…I mean literally at the beginning of each debate she says things like ‘I may not be the loudest person on stage and I may not have the best ideas and I may not have polling’ and I kind of always end up thinking ‘what…what do you have to offer?” So while I respect Senator Klobuchar I don’t find her to be a terribly enticing candidate, and I’ll be honest I have a lot of friends from a lot of branches of the democratic party, but I don’t really know anyone my age who’s an ardent Amy Klobuchar supporter. And as for Beto O’Rourke, I like many people are disappointed Beto isn’t running for senate again because I think his strength is in Texas and is also in running against a hated opponent. And that is why he was so popular when he was running against Ted Cruz. But in a crowded primary like this he unfortunately doesn’t really stand out. And he’s young, and he’s a charismatic white man, and I think that did him a lot of favors in the 2018 race. And like I said a lot of people rallied behind him because they really hated Ted Cruz and he brought a fresh perspective to Texas they hadn’t seen in a while but unfortunately on the national stage that just didn’t carry over. What I will say about congressman O’Rourke is that he has handled the gun violence in Texas over the past six or so weeks in a really admirable, humble…I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how he has handled this because he has been so unafraid to boldly call out the NRA and the Republicans and anyone who’s continued to support a lack of gun control legislation, because it’s taking lives of Americans every single day. And he’s really not shied away from taking that issue on head on, and he’s introduced more progressive gun control policy platforms to his greater platform than a lot of candidates have. And what I hope he will achieve in his run for president is not to get the nomination but to push the greater scope of candidates to adopt more progressive gun control reform as part of their platform, like a mandatory buy-back program and other measures that would really help the gun violence crisis in our country. So that’s what I really admire about him even though I don’t necessarily want him to be the nominee. 

  • With electability as a #1 issue, and Biden polling highest in electability, is Biden a worthwhile candidate for students to turn to, or would have have any reason to steer clear? Does his policy appeal?

So that’s three excellent and very big questions…I’m going to start with the last one which is does his policy appeal to young people. I know people who support Joe Biden, but when I ask why they support Joe Biden the answer is almost never because of xy and z policy. It’s because he is electable, (air quotes) “whatever that means”, and he can beat Donald Trump, which is yet unproven to me, or that he was a good VP under Obama. Dems love Obama, that’s fine, but it has nothing to do with how he would govern in his own right. On the electability issue of Joe Biden, I think there’s a weird sort of selective memory people are having; Joe Biden has run for president several times since being in the senate. His decades long political career has been marked by several runs for the presidency, all of which have failed. So I’m still a little confused as to why people think he’s the most electable candidate when he hasn’t been electable previously. 

[asks to repeat second part of question, “is he a worthwhile candidate and would you have a reason to steer clear”] 

I have lots of reasons to steer clear of Joe Biden. I would start off by saying I think, and I don’t mean this to be ageist at all, but I think his age is really showing in this race for two reasons. One which you’ve seen, I’m sure, in the debates he’s always forgetting details, he’s mixing up names of places and people, and his brain doesn’t seem to be…it feels very Reagan-esque in that way. But that almost is secondary to me when you compare it to how out of touch he is with the younger generation. And not even just our generation, like people in gen X who are very underrepresented on that stage it’s like all boomers and like two millennials. He’s out of touch with the needs of our generation and he basically is just saying vote for me because you all like Obama and I’m going to keep doing what Obama did. And I don’t think that’s the best idea. Also, if you look back at his track record it’s marred with controversy. I mean while he had been on the side of good things, a huge red flag for me is the 1994 crime bill which some would point to as the main contributor to today’s mass incarceration crisis. For me that’s a huge issue that I still don’t think is being addressed nearly well enough by most of the candidates on stage. But Biden in particular, he’s continued to defend himself in that regard and I find that very troubling. A lot of people have pointed to his record on bussing, and school integration, and I think that is also troubling. I really struggle to see reasons to vote for Joe Biden that aren’t about how the best way to beat a terrible white man is with a boring white man. And that to me…we need better. Our generation deserves better, our country deserves better, and I don’t think Joe Biden is the solution to any of our problems. 

  • Where have Democrats Overseas been leaning most for 2020?

 I’d say there’s definitely a pretty good spread across our society. I will say for Dems society and my friends, and the people I work with back home (I mean I work with a lot of other young democratic organizers) I hear a lot of support for Elizabeth Warren, still a lot of support for Bernie, a lot of support for mayor Pete Buttigieg, (he’s seems to be popular). Those seem to be the main ones a lot of people are excited about. Weirdly I know some people who are very gung-ho about Andrew Yang, which I don’t totally understand…I guess the recurring theme is people are attracted to the candidates which are shaking things up in one way or another. With Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, they’re both very progressive and both have been pushing the most progressive platforms. Mayor Pete is the first openly gay candidate which is extremely exciting, and a lot of people are attracted to that. He’s also the youngest candidate on stage and I think that is exciting for people because it means he maybe shares our sense of urgency about climate change, just to cite one example. Andrew Yang—totally rogue, pushing a completely different platform than anyone else on stage. Bernie and Warren I think are just the standard progressive agenda that people are looking for. So I guess candidates that are shaking things up in one way or another are the what I’m seeing people drawn to because…I mean the student population now, my year, 4thyears, were all able to vote in 2016 but weirdly enough, 1st2ndand 3rdyears, I’m pretty sure none of them could vote in 2016[1]and it’s sort of crazy to think that I was a first year when the election happened in 2016 and I’ll be out of uni when the next one happens. People of college age now are really frustrated that older generations did this to us and now we’re stuck with the mess and we have to get our way out of it and the solution is do something. 

  • How can students here get more involved in the primary and general election cycle from St Andrews?

It’s easy to sort of lose touch with American politics, but obviously I’m biased with the Democrats Overseas Society—we do a lot of events to keep people keyed in to what’s happening back home in America, we do non-partisan voter registration for students of any or no party affiliation for local elections, primary elections, state elections, general elections, all of that good stuff. We also hold events, we’ve been doing debate watch parties where the day after the debate we’ll watch the highlights and discuss the key points and what we thought of all of the candidates’ performances. And we also do socials and create spaces for people to meet fellow likeminded, or perhaps differently minded, American students, and to just talk about the issues that matter to us. And I think just keeping people keyed in to what’s going on back in the states makes people want to be engaged in what’s happening. And whether that’s voting or going a step further and doing a phone bank or a text bank (we host those throughout each election season—just last year for example, for the 2018 midterms, we made over 2,000 phone calls for candidates in the states and over 10,000 texts for candidates back in the states, and I don’t know what our numbers will look like this year because obviously 2018 was huge and I won’t be here in the fall of 2020). There are ways to get involved from the most basic level of socializing with other people who care about politics to getting involved in our society by attending events or even running for a position.


[1]As a 3rd year, I was and knew many people who were of age to vote, but the percentage was still well below 50%